The Two Colombias: A Nation Divided by Geography Presidential Elections in Colombia First Round on May 31, 2026, Part 1

Abelardo De La Espriella won the popular vote by nearly 700,000 votes. But look at the map, and Ivan Cepeda appears to have won more of Colombia. How is this possible? As you can see on the Map Colombia did not just vote for two candidates. It voted as two countries: a coastal, progressive Colombia that backed Cepeda, and an Andean, conservative Colombia that backed Abelardo. On the Visual: Map colored by winner (blue =Abelardo, vivid azure = Cepeda). Key data points: Cepeda’s Colombia: Pacific coast + Caribbean + Amazon + Bogota Abelardo’s Colombia: Andean interior + Llanos + Border region Cepeda Won the Map. But Abelardo Won the vote

This pie chart also helps us to understand that Colombia’s presidential first round, Ivan Cepeda’s Pacto Historico won 18 of 34 departments (53%) a geographic majority. While Abelardo de la Espriella’s Centro Democratico won 16 departments (47%). However somehow this does not count, votes do. Despite winning more territory, Cepeda trails in the popular vote (9.69M vs. 10.36M). His victories came in Colombia’s smallest, most remote departments. Abelardo won the population giants Antioquia, Cundinamarca, Santander by wider margins. This is Colombia’s “Electoral College paradox”: territorial dominance without popular victory. What it means for the runoff: Cepeda must turn out more voters in his coastal and Amazonian Strongholds. Abelardo must defend his Andean base. The 5 swing departments Caldas, Quindio, Risaralda (Coffee Zone) , San Andres, Vichada will decide. The territorial vote reveals an almost perfect split just 177,000 votes separate the two candidates across all departments

Add up the winner’s votes in every department, and Colombia’s division becomes undeniable: The “Pacto Historico (Cepeda)” party got 6,249,693 territorial votes, share 51% VS “The Centro Democratico (Abelardo)” party got 6,072,138 territorial votes, share 49% just 177,000 votes separate them. That’s rounding error in a nation of 41 million eligible voters. This chart does not show total national votes. It shows the votes accumulated by the winner in each department. Cepeda’s 18 depatments produced slightly more winning votes than Abelardo’s 16. But remember: Abelardo leads the popular vote (10.36M vs 9.69M). The bigger picture Departments won by Cepeda 53% VS Abelardo 47% as result a gap of 6% now about Territorial winner votes by Cepeda 51% VS Abelardo 49% as a result a gap of 2% so National popular vote by Cepeda 40.9% VS Abelardo 43.7% as a result a gap of -2.8%. The more you zoom in, the closer it gets and then it flips. But that’s only half the story, see you soon, dear readers!! Data: Registraduria Nacional June 02, 2026